Leeds United have been backed to spend this season looking up rather than over their shoulder. Statistical experts Opta have updated their predicted Premier League table after the weekend’s results, and as reported by the Yorkshire Evening Post, the model now has the Whites competing for Europe rather than scrapping for survival.
For a club that finished 14th last season and spent most of it being written off in August, that is a notable shift in the weather.
What Opta’s Leeds United predicted table says
The projection is built on simulations of the remaining fixtures, and it is rerun as results come in. This latest version has one established side going down, and it has Leeds in the conversation for continental football rather than the bottom three — a long way from the forecasts that followed promotion.
At the top, the model is emphatic. Arsenal are projected to finish on 78 points with a 52.6 per cent title probability, with Manchester City on 72 points and a 27.1 per cent chance. Liverpool (62 points, 5.8 per cent) are third in the projection, followed by Chelsea on 60 (3.8 per cent) and Manchester United on 57 (2.9 per cent). Newcastle United complete the predicted top six on 55 points, with a 20.6 per cent shot at Champions League qualification.
It is worth saying plainly what a predicted table is: a model, not a promise. Opta are describing probabilities across 38 games, and a Tuesday-afternoon simulation has never won anybody a point at Elland Road.
Why the numbers have warmed to Leeds
Because the football has earned it. Daniel Farke’s side are unbeaten in all four competitive games this season, taking five Premier League points from three matches and adding a 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest in the second round of the Carabao Cup.
Anton Stach’s free-kick settled the league opener at the City Ground, Dominic Calvert-Lewin rescued a point against Brentford at Elland Road, and Saturday brought the most encouraging afternoon of the lot. Jayden Bogle’s first-half finish put Leeds in front at the Amex and only a Luka Vuskovic header from a corner denied them, in a 1-1 draw that extended the unbeaten start. Leeds lost 3-0 on the same ground last season, which is the clearest measure of the distance travelled.
The defensive work is the bit models notice. Leeds have conceded twice in three league games, both from set pieces, and James Trafford has looked worth the outlay behind a back line that has already coped with losing a first-choice centre-half.
The caveats Farke will point to
He will not need reminding. Joe Rodon is out with a hamstring problem the YEP report could keep him sidelined for up to 10 weeks, and there is a fresh fitness question mark hanging over the squad ahead of Wednesday night. Three games is also a very small sample: two of them were draws, and the schedule has not yet thrown Leeds anything like a run of top-six opposition.
The seven summer signings were recruited to give Leeds a squad that is comfortable in this division first and pushes on second, and there is nothing in the early evidence to suggest Farke will start talking about Europe before Christmas.
Chelsea are next — in the flesh
Conveniently, the side Opta rank fourth in that projected table are the next opponents. Leeds travel to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night for a Carabao Cup third-round tie against Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea, with Melvin Bard and Jean-Matteo Bahoya still waiting on their debuts and rotation expected after a quick turnaround.
Supporters will take the compliment from the number-crunchers and then ask for the same thing they always ask for: get it done on the grass. Our full Leeds United team news for the Chelsea tie has the latest before an 8pm kick-off in west London.
